Category: #ukreport

Boris Johnson is braced for a fresh onslaught of resistance as he today reveals Downing Street’s hotly anticipated three-tier system for enforcing local lockdowns.

The new measures are intended to simplify the patchwork of rules currently covering more than 15 million Britons – approximately a quarter of the UK population – as Covid-19 infection rates and related deaths continue to increase.

But the plans are already under fire from across the political spectrum, with a senior Conservative MP telling Politico London Playbook’s Alex Wickham that “we are back to where we were in March – this is going to be shit and it may get shitter yet”.

Local holdouts

In a lone breakthrough for the government, Liverpool Mayor Steve Rotheram released a statement yesterday outlining what will happen when Merseyside enters the highest tier of restrictions.

“Pubs and bars, betting shops, casinos and adult gaming centers and gyms will close,” says the statement, which omits any mention of restaurants. Liverpool will also get an “enforcement package, with laws, not just guidance and advice”, a devolved “local Track, Trace and Isolate package” and “a specific package of financial support”.

Rotheram had previously said that he would refuse to back economically damaging measures to curb infections, so his statement is a win for the government.

But local leaders elsewhere are still proving to be a thorn in Downing Street’s side.

The leaders of Lancashire County, Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool last night issued a joint statement calling for “more detail from government about their proposals and in particular what the differences will be between the tiers in the planned system”.

This demand for greater clarity has been echoed by Sheffield City Mayor Dan Jarvis. In a separate statement, the Labour MP calls on Johnson to provide a “substantial package of powers and resources we need to get the virus under control”.

“As it stands, we are trying to fight this virus with one hand tied behind our back because the government is providing inadequate support,” Jarvis adds.

Westminster rebels

Liverpool’s mayor is one of only a handful of northern MPs backing Johnson’s Covid strategy, with many others openly criticising the Tory leader.

Labour MP Andrew Gwynne, who represents Denton and Reddish in Stockport, last night tweeted that he would not support “the closure of hospitality”, adding that “like the daft 10pm curfew, it will drive people from Covid secure businesses where measures can be enforced into illegal mixing in homes”.

MPs on Johnson’s own backbenches are voicing dissenting opinions too. William Wragg, who holds the Hazel Grove seat in Greater Manchester, tweeted that “talk of closing pubs, restaurants & cafes is misplaced, given that very limited transmission of covid seems to take place there”.

Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden told Sky News this morning that “we are taking the measures that are necessary in order to protect people through this difficult period”.

But even ministers loyal to the prime minister have admitted that the local lockdown measures will be “very challenging” for staff from hospitality businesses.

And Johnson is “facing a rebellion” from Tory MPs who “want the prime minister to improve his Job Support Scheme” in areas that are about to be placed under tight restrictions, the Financial Times reports.

An unnamed Tory MP who represents a constituency in northern England told the paper that if “the government is shutting people’s businesses down and preventing people from working, it probably should make up their entire pay”.

The rebel Tories want “the lowest-paid workers to receive 80% of their wages”, as was the case under the original furlough scheme, rather than the two-thirds being promised by Chancellor Rishi Sunak under the new system, the FT adds.

On the agenda

Johnson was chairing a meeting of the Cobra emergency committee this morning to finalise the three-tier plans.

The most contentious issue still on the table is the “the infection rate at which each tier will kick in”, a point that is dividing the “hawks” and “doves” in Johnson’s cabinet, according to Politico’s Wickham.

Various local leaders are also continuing negotiations with Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick and Cabinet Office officials over which tiers of the new restrictions will apply to their areas.

Once these issues have been ironed out – or even if they are not – Johnson will deliver a statement to the House of Commons at 3.30pm outlining the new system, before leading a televised press conference at 6pm to explain the measures to the public.

Boris Johnson is in the market for a chief of staff as part of a bid to shore up his Downing Street operation that could weaken the influence of No. 10 strategist Dominic Cummings.

The prime minister has already tapped up former Conservative Party chair Andrew Feldman, aka Lord Feldman of Elstree, for the role, The Sunday Times reports. But Feldman is said to have turned down the job, with a source telling the newspaper that “Dom was one of the issues”.

The recruitment drive has “got tongues wagging” in Westminster, and “all eyes are on” Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden as the next most likely candidate for the role, says Politico London Playbook’s Alex Wickham. Having previously served a special adviser under David Cameron, Dowden has the required experience, although questions remain as to how much of a “Boris person” he really is, Wickham adds.

Other possibles include Isaac Levido, the Australian political strategist credited with masterminding the Tories’ landslide victory at last December’s election. Levido is “in the unusual position of having the respect of Cummings without being his lackey”, but the “hirsute Aussie” has also just launched a new agency, “so Johnson probably can’t afford him”, says Wickham.

Mulling the other likely candidates, the Politico pundit notes that George Bridges, a former Department for Exiting the European Union minister, is said to be “exactly the sort of ‘graybeard’ Johnson is said to be after”, while Vote Leave veteran Paul Stephenson has the advantage of being a “huge Cummings ally” and “trusted enough by the Johnson regime to do the job”.

Ben Gascoigne, the PM’s long-time political secretary, and Munira Mirza, Johnson’s policy chief, are also believed to be in the running for the new role.

Whoever Downing Street has in mind, the exact brief and title for the job could both prove crucial. When Cummings joined Johnson’s No. 10 team, the senior aide did not wish to be known as the PM’s chief of staff but also said he would not serve under anyone else with that title.

Almost three million people in the UK may be unemployed by Christmas as up to 1.5 million more jobs face the axe in the run-up to the festive season, two leading think tanks are warning.

With Covid-19 still “battering the economy” and the government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme coming to an end on 31 October, more companies will be forced to lay off staff, says The Guardian. The predicted “surge in unemployment” would drive the unemployment rate above 8% for the first time in almost a decade, the newspaper adds.

The latest study from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) found that UK businesses are planning to lay off more than a third (35%) of furloughed workers after the scheme ends this month – equivalent to 1.2 million staff.

And a further 300,000 jobs are also at risk, according to the think tank, which is echoing Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s warning of a “tough” winter ahead.

The CEBR agrees that “as the chancellor said, he can’t be expected to save every job throughout the crisis and a readjustment of the economy will be required”.

But “as hopes for an early return to normal recede and it indeed looks like some businesses in Covid hotspots will need to close in the coming weeks and month, the chancellor needs to act now despite the fiscal cost”, the economies consultancy adds.

The Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) is also warning of major job losses to come.

The think tank believes that the government’s new Job Support Scheme (JSS) “will do little to halt rising unemployment”, The Times reports.

The IPPR says that almost two-thirds of the three million people presently on furlough had been working in “viable” roles – jobs that are likely to become available again once Covid-19 restrictions are lifted.

But “we find that the new schemes will only save 230,000 of these jobs. As such, 1.8 million viable jobs which could otherwise be preserved will be lost, at great individual and wider economic cost,” the experts predict.

European Union nations have begun “wargaming” plans for a no-deal Brexit that could see the resumption of talks next year if the December deadline is missed, according to insiders.

Ahead of crunch talks in Brussels this week, a senior EU diplomat told The Telegraph that although there would be a “period of chaos” if no agreement is struck, “there is nothing that says that just because there is a no deal there can never be trade negotiations again”.

Other sources also insist that eventually “UK-EU trade negotiations would have to resume with the European Commission, which handles negotiations on behalf of the bloc, after no deal on 1 January”, says the newspaper. But the insiders warn that London would continue to face the same demands and would have lost any goodwill and leverage.

Not everyone is convinced that the talks could resume, however. A separate EU source reportedly said that there would be no resumption of trade negotiations in the aftermath of no-deal and that Britain would be forced to strike bilateral agreements with individual member countries.

Meanwhile, EU leaders including France’s President Emmanuel Macron are expected to insist on stringent enforcement rules for any UK trade deal, amid widespread concerns that Boris Johnson’s decision to supersede the Brexit treaty has shown that London cannot be trusted.

In a sign of the erosion of trust that Johnson’s move caused, the bloc wants any agreement to be backed by the right for Brussels to take “rapid retaliatory action” if Britain were to breach its commitments, the Financial Times reports.

The EU’s chief negotiator told a meeting of European ambassadors last week that any hint of compromise, especially on fishing rights, would weaken the bloc’s position. Michel Barnier is encouraging European leaders to resist Johnson’s efforts to turn this week’s summit, on Thursday and Friday, into a de-facto negotiating deadline.