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UK unemployment predicted to hit nearly three million by Christmas

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Experts warn that new jobs support scheme will not halt job losses as ‘tough’ winter looms

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Experts warn that new jobs support scheme will not halt job losses as ‘tough’ winter looms


One-Minute Read

Mike Starling

Monday, October 12, 2020 – 10:47am

Almost three million people in the UK may be unemployed by Christmas as up to 1.5 million more jobs face the axe in the run-up to the festive season, two leading think tanks are warning.

With Covid-19 still “battering the economy” and the government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme coming to an end on 31 October, more companies will be forced to lay off staff, says The Guardian. The predicted “surge in unemployment” would drive the unemployment rate above 8% for the first time in almost a decade, the newspaper adds.

The latest study from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) found that UK businesses are planning to lay off more than a third (35%) of furloughed workers after the scheme ends this month – equivalent to 1.2 million staff.

And a further 300,000 jobs are also at risk, according to the think tank, which is echoing Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s warning of a “tough” winter ahead.

The CEBR agrees that “as the chancellor said, he can’t be expected to save every job throughout the crisis and a readjustment of the economy will be required”.

But “as hopes for an early return to normal recede and it indeed looks like some businesses in Covid hotspots will need to close in the coming weeks and month, the chancellor needs to act now despite the fiscal cost”, the economies consultancy adds.

The Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) is also warning of major job losses to come.

The think tank believes that the government’s new Job Support Scheme (JSS) “will do little to halt rising unemployment”, The Times reports.

The IPPR says that almost two-thirds of the three million people presently on furlough had been working in “viable” roles – jobs that are likely to become available again once Covid-19 restrictions are lifted.

But “we find that the new schemes will only save 230,000 of these jobs. As such, 1.8 million viable jobs which could otherwise be preserved will be lost, at great individual and wider economic cost,” the experts predict.

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Why the European Union is wargaming for a no-deal Brexit

Emmanuel Macron addresses journalists wearing a black face mask/
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Daniel Cole/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

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Emmanuel Macron addresses journalists wearing a black face mask/

Sources say leaders in Brussels believe missing the December deadline need not signal end to negotiations


One-Minute Read

Chas Newkey-Burden

Monday, October 12, 2020 – 10:02am

European Union nations have begun “wargaming” plans for a no-deal Brexit that could see the resumption of talks next year if the December deadline is missed, according to insiders.

Ahead of crunch talks in Brussels this week, a senior EU diplomat told The Telegraph that although there would be a “period of chaos” if no agreement is struck, “there is nothing that says that just because there is a no deal there can never be trade negotiations again”.

Other sources also insist that eventually “UK-EU trade negotiations would have to resume with the European Commission, which handles negotiations on behalf of the bloc, after no deal on 1 January”, says the newspaper. But the insiders warn that London would continue to face the same demands and would have lost any goodwill and leverage.

Not everyone is convinced that the talks could resume, however. A separate EU source reportedly said that there would be no resumption of trade negotiations in the aftermath of no-deal and that Britain would be forced to strike bilateral agreements with individual member countries.

Meanwhile, EU leaders including France’s President Emmanuel Macron are expected to insist on stringent enforcement rules for any UK trade deal, amid widespread concerns that Boris Johnson’s decision to supersede the Brexit treaty has shown that London cannot be trusted.

In a sign of the erosion of trust that Johnson’s move caused, the bloc wants any agreement to be backed by the right for Brussels to take “rapid retaliatory action” if Britain were to breach its commitments, the Financial Times reports.

The EU’s chief negotiator told a meeting of European ambassadors last week that any hint of compromise, especially on fishing rights, would weaken the bloc’s position. Michel Barnier is encouraging European leaders to resist Johnson’s efforts to turn this week’s summit, on Thursday and Friday, into a de-facto negotiating deadline.

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Ten Things You Need to Know Today: Monday 12 Oct 2020

Liverpool set to take brunt of new Covid restrictions

Merseyside is expected to face the tightest restrictions when new local lockdown rules for England are announced later. There is expected to be a new “three tier” system, which will classify regions as being at a “medium,” “high” or “very high” level of alert. Boris Johnson will host a televised press conference at 6pm with Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, and Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England.

Dr Fauci says Trump campaign ad twists his words

The top US government scientist says an edited clip of him used in a Trump campaign ad is misleading. The video shows Dr Anthony Fauci saying he “can’t imagine that anybody could be doing more” to fight Covid-19, implying he is referring to the US president, but he was in fact talking about himself and other medical officials. “I have never publicly endorsed any political candidate,” said Fauci in a statement.

Study finds that Covid can survive 28 days on banknotes

Covid-19 can remain infectious on surfaces such as banknotes, phone screens and stainless steel for 28 days, according to researchers. Previous studies found that the virus could survive for two to three days on bank notes and glass, and up to six days on plastic and stainless steel, but an Australian study found the “extremely robust” virus lasted for 28 days on smooth surfaces.

Assets worth €150bn moved to France ahead of Brexit

At least €150bn of assets have been moved from the City of London to France ahead of Brexit, according to the governor of the Banque de France. Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that, since September, the bank had authorised 21 investment firms, four credit institutions and seven third-country branches to “ensure continuity of activities in France”. Trade talks between London and the EU are entering a critical week.

Unions tell government to leverage influence over Amazon

Trade unions say the government should use the influence it has over Amazon due to £630m of state contracts to force the company to improve conditions for workers. Releasing a report exposing Amazon’s employment practices on the eve of Prime Day, the TUC said the annual gimmick pushes hardworking staff to their limit and beyond. “Amazon workers have played a key role during this pandemic,” it said. “But many are treated like disposable labour.”

Bin Laden’s spokesman is heading back to the UK

The former London spokesman for Osama bin Laden is set to return to the UK after being released from jail in the US. Adel Abdel Bary, 60, was sentenced to 25 years’ jail in 2015, but consideration was given to the 16 years he had already served. He has been moved to a US immigration and customs enforcement detention facility, where he will remain until he is transferred to the UK.

One million new pupils sign up for free school meals

Food poverty campaigners say the number of UK children registering for free school meals has soared, with an estimated one million pupils signing up for the first time. Research by the Food Foundation thinktank, released as part of footballer Marcus Rashford’s campaign to end child food poverty, says the Covid-19 crisis has caused fresh problems for family incomes.

Shoppers power growth but slowdown could follow

The EY Item Club has warned that slower growth may be on the cards after the UK economy grew by as much as 17% in the three months to the end of September. Shoppers powered the rise following the lifting of lockdown but fresh lockdown measures, poor Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU and a spike in unemployment could lead to less rosy months ahead.

People of Gaza sift through rubbish for food

Gazans are searching through rubbish to find food as Palestinians battle unprecedented levels of poverty, says the UN. Philippe Lazzarini, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency chief, said that across Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Gaza and elsewhere, Palestinian refugees are facing increased suffering because of the Covid-19 pandemic and Israeli restrictions. “There is despair and hopelessness,” he said.

Arts venues set to hear whether they will be helped

Ministers claim that 1,300 arts organisations will be saved by a £250m bailout fund which it releases today. As it prepares to inform theatres, arts venues and museums whether they were successful in claiming grants of up to £1m, the government said that the £257 million pot would “save 1,385 theatres, galleries, performance groups, arts organisations, museums and local venues facing the challenges of the coronavirus pandemic”.

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Killer whales declare war on Spanish fishing boats

And other stories from the stranger side of life


One-Minute Read

Monday, October 12, 2020 – 7:03am

Killer whales have declared war on Spanish fishing boats. Since July, there have been at least 30 attacks on small boats in which the mammals ram the vessels. Most have taken place off Spain’s north-west coast, but some were rammed by the mammals in the Straits of Gibraltar and five ships were attacked in Portuguese waters. A woman who was onboard one of the ships said that the attack felt “totally orchestrated”.

Labrador puppy picks up sex toy during walk

A dog owner was embarrassed when the pet she was walking found a sex toy. Klara Robson was walking a labrador named Charlie and thought he was playing with a stick. Thinking he looked happy, she took a photo to send to the dog’s owner. It was only then she realised that the one-year-old pup had actually found a sex toy and was carrying it around in his mouth.

Baby boy delivered in mid-air

A passenger has given birth prematurely to a baby boy on a flight in India. Flight attendants helped deliver the infant during a flight last week IndiGo flight from Delhi to Bengaluru. The crew have been praised for their “amazing team work”. They were were assisted by a senior gynaecologist who was, luckily, on the flight. “Thank you God and entire @IndiGo6E crew,” tweeted one passenger.

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America’s Cup: The tech helping Ineos Team UK prepare

BBC Click gets unique access to the UK’s entry into the America’s Cup sailing race.

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