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Brexit: what are the odds of a deal and what remains to be agreed?

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier returns to Brussels after the last round of negotiations in London
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Talks enter 11th-hour phase with likelihood of an agreement hanging in the balance

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Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images

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EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier returns to Brussels after the last round of negotiations in London

Talks enter 11th-hour phase with likelihood of an agreement hanging in the balance


In Depth

Gabriel Power

Monday, December 7, 2020 – 3:01pm

The unofficial deadline set by both UK and EU officials for agreeing a Brexit deal by the end of last week has come and gone, but negotiators are ploughing on in a last-ditch bid to secure a future trade agreement.

The EU “backed down over post-Brexit fishing arrangements” on Sunday night, in what may be a significant victory for Britain, The Telegraph reports. But the chances of securing a trade deal remain “on a knife edge” as talks continue with “other key issues unresolved”, the newspaper adds.

What are the odds of a deal?

Officials on both sides had wanted the talks to be resolved by Sunday in order to push the resulting deal through the UK and EU’s respective parliaments.

Bu despite the failure to achieve that aim, the British government is maintaining a bullish tone. Foreign Minister James Cleverly told Times Radio this morning that the UK would not “roll over” for the sake of securing a treaty.

“Yes, time is tight, yes it might go right to the wire and, indeed, it may well be that we don’t get the deal,” he said. “But I think a deal is possible and we’ll keep working towards it until we get it.”

According to bookmakers, a deal is more likely than the UK crashing out of the bloc without one – but only just.

As of early Monday afternoon, William Hill had odds of 8/13 on a deal being signed before the Brexit transition period ends, while SBK had 13/19 and Smarkets had 4/6. The odds for the negotiators failing to come to an agreement were 5/4, 32/21 and 7/5 respectively.

What remains to be agreed?

Despite marking the “final stages of talks”, this week will not necessarily be the make-or-break moment given the various issues still to be resolved, says Sky News‘ political editor Beth Rigby.

However, officials in Brussels told Rigby that progress had been made over the weekend towards resolving the disagreements over fishing rights that have continued to hobble the negotiations.

No details have been released about the alleged breakthrough as yet, but sources close to the talks have suggested that the UK, which had “already offered a three-year transition period on fishing arrangements”, may have offered “an even longer transition of around five years”, says The Telegraph.

“In return, the EU would have to hand back at least 50% of its fish quotas from January 1 instead of the 18% it is currently offering,” the paper reports. But British sources “stressed late on Sunday night that a final agreement on fishing was yet to emerge”.

Another question mark remains over the “level playing field” (LPF) for business. EU countries were “united on LPF – unlike over fish – meaning Brussels can hold a united front for the rest of the talks”, potentially weakening UK negotiating power, according to Politico’s London Playbook.

Failure to resolve this sticking point could have catastrophic implications, according to the Daily Mail, which says the negotiations “are on the verge of meltdown today” amid “little sign of a breakthrough” in efforts to break the LPF deadlock.

Even if a future trade agreement is agreed, further hurdles remain.

As The Guardian notes, Boris Johnson “will have to sell the deal to the Brexit hardliners of the European Research Group”.

ERG deputy chair David Jones yesterday insisted that the group had “huge confidence” in the UK’s chief negotiator David Frost and his team – but described the outstanding sticking points as “an internal matter for the EU” to resolve.

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Playing Cupid during Covid: Tinder reveals Britain’s top chat-up lines of the year

Dominic Cummings arrives home in London after giving a press conference regarding his Durham trip.
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Controversial former Downing Street aide Dominic Cummings became an unlikely dating topic

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Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty Images

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Dominic Cummings arrives home in London after giving a press conference regarding his Durham trip.

Prince Harry, Meghan Markle and Dominic Cummings among most talked-about celebs on the dating app


In Brief

Joe Evans

Monday, December 7, 2020 – 2:17pm

Locked-down singletons have “adapted and got creative” in their bid to find love during the Covid pandemic – and their chat-up lines and topics have branched off in some unexpected directions too, according to Tinder.

The online dating giant’s newly published Year in Swipe report reveals double-digit increases in use of the app’s messaging and swipe features from the end of February, “with more daters than ever relying on meeting people virtually”, says the Daily Mail.

By “looking at a year’s worth of Tinder profiles”, the company has identified new trends including “coronavirus-themed pick-up lines, bragging about success on TikTok, and showing support for the Black Lives Matter movement”, the newspaper adds.

The most-mentioned celebrities in flirty conversations between Tinder users in the UK were Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, Tiger King stars Joe Exotic and Carole Baskin, and perhaps rather more surprisingly, Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings.

Hot topics of discussion included the NHS and, less surprisingly, Eat Out to Help Out. Mentions of Tiktok have also increased eight-fold on Tinder since the start of the year, with some singletons showing off their dance moves in their own videos, or trying to attract potential mates by bragging that they’re “TikTok famous”.

And BLM mentions in Tinder users’ biographies increased by 55 times from last year, overtaking use of the term “hook-up”.

Amid the furore surrounding the US presidential election, mentions of the word “vote” has doubled in 2020 – “because you know what’s sexier than voting? Nothing,” says the Tinder report.

Inevitably, the coronavirus pandemic has also shaped the flirty virtual chat.

Use of the emjoi wearing a face mask spiked, along with the shrugging emoji, the rainbow emoji and the BLM fist in the air emoji.

An “entire new breed of chat-up lines took the app by storm in March” too, as references to “quarantine and chill” increased rapidly, says the Mail.

But among the most memorable chat-up lines of 2020 has to be “it’s a long drive to Barnard Castle, who’s Cumming with me?” – a reference to the former Downing Street aide’s infamous lockdown trip.

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Watch: Stuttgart player Silas Wamangituka booked for walking ball into goal

Stuttgart player Silas Wamangituka was booked after slowly walking the ball into the net for a goal in their 2-0 win against Werder Bremen.

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#uklive #uknews #ukreports #ukstory #uktalk #unitedkingdom UK Blog News Service in the United Kingdom

I’m A Celeb stars sang Disney to keep private conversations off TV

The runner up has been chatting with Radio 1’s Greg James about life in the castle.

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#uklive #uknews #ukreports #ukstory #uktalk #unitedkingdom UK Blog News Service in the United Kingdom

I’m A Celeb stars sang Disney to keep private conversations off TV

The runner up has been chatting with Radio 1’s Greg James about life in the castle.

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